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BNP Paribas anticipates a half-percentage point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) in the latter half of 2026, driven by increased defense and infrastructure spending. The bank has raised its euro zone growth forecasts to 1.3% for this year and 1.5% for 2026, while predicting average inflation of 2.2% this year and 2% next year. In the near term, it expects the ECB to cut its policy rate to 2% by June, influenced by disinflation and the negative impact of higher U.S. tariffs.
BNP Paribas anticipates a half percentage point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) in the latter half of 2026, driven by increased defense and infrastructure spending. The bank has raised its euro zone growth forecasts to 1.3% for this year and 1.5% for 2026, while predicting average inflation of 2.2% this year and 2% next year. In the short term, the ECB is expected to cut its policy rate to 2% by June, with traders anticipating further cuts before a potential rate hike in September 2026.
The EU Court has upheld a €172.3 million fine on UBS for its role in a cartel involving the trading of European government bonds, alongside six other banks. While fines for Unicredit and Nomura were slightly reduced, the court confirmed the serious anticompetitive behavior of the banks during a financial crisis. In other news, Google's AI feature is now available in Switzerland, and a 30-employee firm has shut down due to a computer disaster. Additionally, the Federal Court annulled the election of Senator Simon Stocker due to residency issues.
TUI's recent Capital Markets Day revealed positive signals, highlighting robust travel demand and improved financial prospects, despite subdued consumer sentiment in Europe. Analysts, including UBS, maintain a "Neutral" rating with a target price of 8 euros, while the TUI share saw a slight decline to 7.30 euros, indicating an 8% upside potential. Investors are now focused on the profitability of the upcoming summer business.
Barclays and Deutsche Bank are capitalizing on the strong performance of financials and European markets, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index rising 8.86% year to date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. The iShares MSCI Europe Financials has surged 26% this year, marking a consistent upward trend with potential for continued gains.
The Luxembourg-based General Court upheld fines imposed by the European Commission on three investment banks, reducing UniCredit's penalty from €69.4 million to €65 million and Nomura's from €129.5 million to €125.6 million. UBS's fine of €172.3 million remains unchanged. The case involved seven banks accused of colluding to exchange information on European State bonds from January 2007 to November 2011 to secure better conditions.
The European Court has upheld a €172.4 million antitrust fine against UBS for its role in a bond trading cartel, while slightly reducing fines for UniCredit and Nomura. UniCredit's penalty is now €65 million, down from €69.4 million, and Nomura's is reduced to €125.6 million from €129.6 million. Other banks involved, including NatWest and Bank of America, were not fined for various reasons.
BNP Paribas announced that no stabilisation was carried out for the EUR 300 million securities offering by FNAC DARTY SA, which features a 4.75% coupon maturing in April 2032. The securities are not registered under the U.S. Securities Act and cannot be offered or sold in the U.S. without proper registration or exemption.
UBS has maintained a "Neutral" rating for TUI, setting a target price of 8 euros following a positive assessment of the company's recent capital markets day. Analyst Cristian Nedelcu highlighted the tour operator's strong cash generation, with investors now focusing on summer profitability.
UBS has maintained a "Neutral" rating for TUI, setting a target price of 8 euros following a positive assessment of the company's recent capital market day. Analyst Cristian Nedelcu noted the tour operator's strong cash generation, with investors now focusing on summer profitability.
European Securities and Markets Authority
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bnp paribas forecasts ecb rate hike amid increased spending and inflation pressures
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